by Stephen Mosher, the Population Research Institute
Now why would aging and dying populations (e.g., the Russians, the
Italians, the Japanese, etc.) suddenly start having exactly
the number of children necessary to replace themselves. The UN
Population Division does not say.
Perhaps — I can only speculate — its demographers assume that
governments will put in place generous child allowances. But many
countries already have such allowances, and these have had only a
modest effect on fertility. Russia’s $13,500 baby bonus, for
example, has only increased the birth rate by 8 percent, too small a
percentage to offset Russia’s population decline.
In all probability, the future of humanity looks more like the UN
Population Division’s “low variant” projection.
UN Population Division Low Variant Projection
This shows population peaking around 2040 at 8 and a half billion
or so, and then beginning to decline. It assumes that birthrates,
which have been steadily falling for a century now, will continue to
fall. What could be more reasonable?